Trump Started the Crash

I’m ramping up my pension contributions as retirement draws nearer, only two years to go now. This month, I saved £900, and I’ve set next month’s payment to £1,900. My focus is crystal clear, every bit of spare income is going straight into my pension to maximise the government’s tax-free cash allowance.

Networth statement

With £22K in income from tech shares this month, I’ve made serious progress. The £112K deficit is now just a distant memory as I move steadily towards the retirement finish line.

DateTotal Net Worth£ Gain this month% Gain this monthAccum Yearly Gain
14/11/2024£448,717£27,0626.42%£27,062
29/12/2024£470,052£21,3354.75%£48,397
18/01/2025£476,266£6,2141.32%£54,611
16/02/2025£479,644£3,3780.71%£57,989
16/04/2025£375,446-£112,369-23.04%-£54,379
16/05/2025£433,326£66,37218.09%£11,993
16/06/2025£447,891£14,7553.41%£26,748
16/07/2025£474,068£26,1775.84%£52,925
16/08/2025£490,406£16,3383.45%£69,263
16/09/2025£510,518£20,1124.10%£89,375
16/10/2025£533,165£22,6474.44%£112,022
Yearly29.49%£112,022

Trump is at it again

President Donald Trump’s latest escalation in the US-China trade war announcing new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp global sell-off on Friday, wiping $2 trillion from stocks and sending major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down between 2% and 3.5%. Markets and analysts expect heightened volatility when trading resumes on Monday, with investors bracing for further downside as the news is digested and uncertainty remains high.​

What’s Likely to Happen Monday?

  • Most financial commentators anticipate more downside for share prices at the open, as futures markets and technical signals point to increased volatility and anxiety.​
  • Some stocks are now in oversold territory by technical measures, which in past tariff escalations created short-term rebounds later in the week as markets adjusted to the policy and, sometimes, to signs of negotiation.​
  • There’s also hope among some investors that this steep sell-off is partly a “negotiating move”; similar sell-offs earlier this year were later reversed as diplomatic efforts or partial tariff rollbacks calmed investors.​

Should Investors Brace for a Crash?

  • While Monday could see a further initial dip, a full market crash is not universally expected. Much depends on whether additional retaliatory actions or conciliatory statements come from either side, and on how investors interpret Trump’s intent.​
  • Defensive stocks, like retailers and consumer staples, sometimes gain in these environments as investors shift toward perceived safety.​

My Outlook

The general view among market strategists and technical analysts is similar to mine as I see further declines are likely at the start of the week, but there is potential for a rebound if negotiations resume or if investors view the dip as a buying opportunity. The situation is very fluid, and while a crash is possible if rhetoric escalates, the base case for many is a drop followed by at least a partial recovery by week’s end.​

Remaining vigilant makes sense, but sudden rebounds are common during US-China trade standoffs, especially if diplomatic signals shift or if selling pressure exhausts itself and value investors step in.​

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